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Family members provide the majority of social support for most older adults, but not all individuals have living family. Those without living close kin report higher rates of loneliness and experience elevated risks of chronic diseases and nursing facility placement.

How the population of older adults without living family, the kinless population, will change in the coming decades merits consideration.

Historical racial differences and recent variation in demographic rates imply unequal burdens of kinlessness for white and black Americans. Increasing kinlessness may represent a growing population health concern. Close Mature white women with black men provide many important functions as adults age, affecting health, financial well-being, and happiness.

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Those without kin report higher rates of loneliness and experience elevated risks of chronic illness and nursing facility placement. Historical racial differences and recent shifts in core demographic rates suggest that white and black older adults in the United States may have unequal availability of close kin and that this gap in availability will widen in the coming decades. Whereas prior work explores the changing composition and size of the childless population or those without spouses, here we consider the kinless population of older adults with no living close family members and how this burden is changing for different race and sex groups.

Our results suggest dramatic growth in the size of the kinless population as well as increasing racial disparities in percentages kinless. These conclusions are driven by declines in marriage and are robust to different assumptions about the future trajectory of divorce rates or growth in nonmarital partnerships.

Our findings draw attention to the potential expansion of older adult loneliness, which is increasingly considered a threat to population health, and the unequal burden kinlessness may place on black Americans. Older adults without kin are some of the most disadvantaged and isolated members of society 12because close kin are vital sources of Mature white women with black men support that affect social, economic, and physical well-being 34.

The availability of kin is repeatedly implicated in studies of Mature white women with black men aging 56and lacking kin is among the social factors most positively associated with nursing facility placement and quality of care 78. Loneliness appears to be increasing among older adults 9 and is more strongly associated with early mortality than smoking and excessive alcohol consumption Of course, not all close kin are in contact, geographically proximate, emotionally intimate, or willing or able to exchange resources, but the availability of kin is a necessary condition for their provision of such functions For these reasons, it is important to examine the population dynamics of those who lack close kin In the American kinship system 16demographic events determine the availability of kin, with marriage and fertility producing kin and death and divorce reducing them.

The clear links between demographic processes and kinship networks 1718 imply that ongoing demographic changes in American society will shift the availability of living kin in the future. However, a continuing Mature white women with black men in relationship types in older adulthood, particularly the growth of nonmarital partnerships 1920complicates this picture. To best understand changes in the future availability of kin, researchers must consider potential continued increases in nonmarital partnerships.

We draw on theories of cohort succession and demographic metabolism 21 Mature white women with black men the methods of computational demography 2223 to examine the changing population of kinless individuals in American society over the coming decades.

Prior research has examined the increasing percentages and numbers of people who lack specific types of kin, such as the never married 2425 or the childless 2627but few studies have put these factors together to consider the subpopulation that simultaneously lacks multiple types of close kin and is at elevated risk of social isolation, loneliness, and hardship 15 The first and second demographic transitions and the gender revolution suggest that the share of people who lack multiple types of close kin is increasing 29 For instance, unions occur less frequently, with delayed marriage and more nonmarriage 31and historical increases in union dissolution affect cohorts that have recently aged into older adulthood 32 Similarly, cohort childlessness doubled between and Putting these factors together, we can expect that more and more Americans will be without close kin in the coming decades.

On the other hand, if nonmarital partnerships take on kin-like functions and continue to grow in prevalence Mature white women with black men35they may serve as a buffer against such trends. Two ongoing demographic changes may further amplify the size of the US kinless population in the future. Risks of gray divorce are higher among blacks, those with low education and incomes, and for second and subsequent marriages The second set of demographic changes leading to a potential growth in kinlessness is population aging and population growth.

In its most recent national projections, the United States Census Bureau estimates that the percentage of Americans age 50 and older will increase from In addition to comprising a larger share of the US population, there will be many more older adults in the future.

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As the overall population continues to increase, demographers expect that the United States will have Recent work finds substantial increases in kinlessness among adults in their 50s and 60s for Mature white women with black men recent birth cohorts, which combined with population aging may yield dramatic increases in numbers kinless in the coming decades The increasing prevalence of cohabitation and dating relationships may offset, to some degree, a potential rise in kinlessness among older adults.

Increasingly, relationships formed later in life do not result in marriage 38and single older adults are now just as likely to form cohabitating as marital unions Inthere were more than 1 million cohabiting older adults, who together made up 1.

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Dating relationships in older adulthood can have a variety of meanings, with some functioning much like marriage and others with less commitment Whether recent increases in these new relationship forms can offset increasing kinlessness depends on how many of these adults also have children and other types of close kin, because those with living children are not kinless. These facts explain why recent work on contemporary kinlessness finds only marginal differences in its population prevalence when nonmarital partnerships are included Although recent explorations find that white and black Americans of both sexes currently have comparable rates of kinlessness in older adulthood 15the future burden of kinlessness is unlikely to be equally distributed across race and sex groups, because of differential demographic rates and population aging.

Recent research finds large racial differences in the existence of kin of different types using survey data and that these differences are growing in more recent birth cohorts A portion of these complex patterns is determined by the different ages at which whites and blacks experience kin mortality 14 For instance, by age 60, blacks are twice as likely as whites to have lost a spouse But, of course, differential fertility also plays a critical role in producing these disparities by altering numbers of children, how many siblings those children have, and age differences between parents and children.

There are also differences in nonmarital partnerships by race, with cohabitation and dating more common among blacks than whites 19 Another factor is that whites and blacks are expected to have uneven patterns of population aging.

Other demographic factors also lead to differences in kin availability between men and women. Women have greater life-course overlap with children and grandchildren because of sex differences in the age at childbearing, age differences between spouses, and greater longevity Women Mature white women with black men also less likely to marry and more likely to be widowed or divorced in older age 25 Social gerontologists have examined the different family structures of older adults by sex and what these differences imply for economic well-being, health, and social integration 44 However, it is unknown how sex differences in kin availability will change due to future trends in marriage, partnership, divorce, remarriage, fertility, and mortality.

To understand the combined influence of these demographic trends on kinlessness, we examine how the population of older adults without close kin will change through and how kinlessness will vary by key population subgroups.

We project the size and characteristics of the US population using demographic microsimulation methods that allow us to consider Mature white women with black men ages 50 and above with no living close family members Approach, Methods, Data, and Mature white women with black men and Mature white women with black men Appendix.

First, we investigate those without a living partner or biological children kinless 1. In the main text, we focus on partnership between married couples as well as between unmarried parents; in SI Appendixwe consider alternate definitions of partnership.

Then, because people without partners and children often leverage sibling relationships for critical kin functions 46we examine those without a living partner, biological children, parents, or siblings kinless 2. We compare the largest native-born groups, single-race non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black Americans, and examine differences by sex.

These groups constituted To maintain simplicity and Mature white women with black men within the constraints imposed by data availability, we do not examine other populations, Mature white women with black men the role of international migration, or examine intergroup marriage.

We review data sources in SI AppendixFig. After an initial period, the simulated populations produce data outputs that match the macro trends in mortality, fertility, and nuptiality that we use as inputs and that we find in historical and projected estimates of core demographic rates SI AppendixFig.

We compare the simulated percentages kinless with empirical percentages that can be estimated from recent nationally representative surveys and find broad agreement SI AppendixFig. We measure the percentages and numbers kinless among individuals aged 50 and above, separately by race and sex. We obtain the number of kinless individuals by multiplying the simulated percentages of individuals over 50 who are kinless by Census estimates or projections of the number of adults ages 50 and above of that race group in each year 3749 To better understand what demographic factors drive changes in kinlessness, we decompose the percentage of the older adult population that ends up kinless through different life-course pathways.

Last, we consider kinlessness in comparison with other population health burdens among older adults: S4 and partnership SI AppendixFig. We now turn to our results. However, because of population aging and population growth, we project increasing numbers kinless among whites, with the number of kinless white men without a partner or biological children increasing from 6.

Blacks will experience large increases in both the percentage and number kinless defined as being without a partner or biological Mature white women with black men from to Percentages for black men increase from 9. The numbers lacking a partner and biological children also increase for both sexes among blacks: Summing our results for whites and blacks, we project that there will be Projected numbers kinless 1 Apercent kinless 1 Bnumbers kinless 2 Cand percent kinless 2 Dpeople age 50 and older, by year, sex, and race.

Among both whites and blacks, the numbers and percentages of those without any living close kin increase between and These increases in percentages correspond to huge increases in the numbers of older whites without close kin between and Increases are even larger for blacks.

Percentages with no living close kin are already higher among blacks than whites in 1. These figures increase to 5. According to our projections, inthere will be 1. Together, we estimate that there will be 6. Next, we examine how the population age structure will change from to and how the kinless subpopulations are distributed among older adults. A dashed black line helps to trace the aging of the to birth cohort over these periods. Those lacking a living partner or children kinless 1 are shown in gray and those lacking all living close kin kinless 2 are shown in black.

It is apparent from both sets of population pyramids that the over population is aging considerably, with greater numbers reaching older ages, especially among women. We also see that the kinless subpopulations, under both definitions, become larger across all older age groups, especially for blacks. Moreover, the kinless population is becoming more widely distributed across different ages within the older adult population, indicating that demographic metabolism and cohort succession, rather than population aging, are driving changes in the percentages kinless population aging does drive increases in numbers kinless.

Significance

Whereas in the kinless population is largely concentrated among those in their 50s and 60s, by kinlessness is found across all older adult years. Age standardization techniques indicate that population aging contributes only marginally to changes in kinless prevalence SI AppendixFig.

Population pyramids of kinless non-Hispanic whites A and blacks B among adults aged 50 and older from Mature white women with black men Next, we consider what demographic and social factors are driving the increases in kinlessness documented above.

The bottom category, group A, represents those who never married and never had children by each year in the simulation. This group is responsible for the majority of the increase in kinlessness among white men, black men, and black women.

The second group, Group B, represents those who were previously married but never had children. These individuals are kinless because they have not yet remarried, and may never, after a spousal death or divorce. Such individuals account for the vast majority of kinless white women, and they also make up sizable but declining shares Mature white women with black men kinless white men, black men, and black women.

The third group, group C, includes the remaining causes of being without a partner or biological Mature white women with black men, such as those whose partner and children died.

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